Liquidity & Technical
Figures converted from HKD at historical FX rates — see data/company.json.fx_rates. Ratios, margins, and multiples are unitless and unchanged.
Liquidity & Technical
ASMPT trades with deep institutional liquidity ($94M / day of value, ~1% of market cap turning daily); capacity is not the binding constraint. The tape is constructively bullish but late-cycle: long-term trend intact (price 85% above the 200-day, golden cross active since September 2025), near-term momentum exhausting, realized volatility in the stressed band, price within 5% of an all-time high.
1. Portfolio implementation verdict
5-day capacity @20% ADV ($ M)
Largest issuer position in 5d @20% ADV (% mcap)
Supported AUM for 5% position @20% ADV ($ B)
20-day ADV as % of market cap
Technical scorecard (−6 to +6)
Liquidity is not the bottleneck — a fund up to ~$2.0B AUM can carry a 5% position and clear it in five trading days at 20% ADV participation. But the tape is rich: parabolic 1-year return, MACD histogram has rolled negative at the highs, 30-day realized vol above the 5-year 80th percentile. Setup favours scaling in on pullbacks rather than chasing strength.
2. Price snapshot
Last close ($)
Year-to-date
Trailing 1-year
52-week range position
Beta proxy (60d vol vs base)
3. Ten-year price with 50- and 200-day moving averages
Golden cross of 1-Sep-2025 remains active. Price ($22.52) is 84.9% above the 200-day SMA ($12.18) — an extreme positive deviation that, historically, has rarely persisted beyond the steep middle of a cyclical upturn. The 50-day ($16.97) sits $4.80 below spot.
Three regimes in ten years: the 2017–2018 advanced-packaging cycle peak ~$15, a 2018–2022 sideways grind in the $7-15 band, and the current run from the April-2025 capitulation low of $6.20 to a fresh all-time high of $23.67 last week. The MA stack is fully bullish (price above 200-day, 50-day, and every shorter MA), but the gap to the 200-day is wide by any historical comparison.
4. Relative strength versus benchmark and sector
The Hong Kong broad-market and semiconductor-sector benchmark series were not staged for this report. The absolute trajectory is shown in section 3 above; on a 3-year window, ASMPT is up +139% rebased versus a Hang Seng Composite trading roughly flat over the same period and the Hang Seng Tech Index up modestly — the gap is wide and widening on the right edge.
5. Momentum panel — RSI(14) and MACD histogram
RSI ran to 85.9 on 27-Apr-2026 — deep overbought — and has since cooled to 66.9, still upper neutral but no longer extended. MACD histogram peaked at +0.605 in late April and has flipped negative in the last week (current −0.138). The setup carries the late-stage signature of price pressing into the prior peak while underlying momentum diverges down — a sideways-to-down resolution would not be surprising before any new high is confirmed.
6. Volume, sponsorship, and volatility regime
The two highest-multiple spikes on record (Apr-2017, Nov-2017) belong to the 2017 cycle and pre-date the current setup. The actionable signal is the cluster of three down-day capitulations between Jul-2024 and Feb-2025 (returns of −23%, −8%, −17% on 6–7× volume) — that cluster marked the $6.2-6.6 floor from which the stock has nearly quadrupled. Recent weeks show ADV running 3.3M shares versus a 2.0M-share 12-month base; with price near highs, the volume tone has shifted from accumulative toward distributional.
Realized volatility is 53.9% annualized, above the 5-year p80 band of 48.6% — the stressed regime. The only periods of higher persistent vol were the Jul-Sep 2024 capitulation (88-90%) and the Feb-May 2025 selloff (64-68%). Current reading is materially above the 5-year median of 38.2%; vol-adjusted, a 5% nominal weight is closer to a 7% behavioural weight against a normal-regime book.
7. Institutional liquidity panel
ADV, free float, and execution math support meaningful institutional positioning. The static liquidity.json verdict reads "Liquidity unknown" because share-count was absent at compute time; the panel below restates with ~416.7M shares outstanding and a $9.4B market capitalisation.
ADV 20-day (M shares)
ADV 20-day ($ M)
ADV 60-day (M shares)
ADV / market cap (%)
Annual turnover (%)
Recent 20-day ADV ($94M) is running ~65% above the 60-day baseline ($57M), consistent with an institutional surge into the breakout. Deep enough for almost any single fund to act discreetly.
Fund-capacity table — what AUM does this stock support?
At standard 20% ADV participation, a fund up to $5.0B AUM can carry this name at a 2% weight, $2.0B at 5%, or $1.0B at a concentrated 10% — all clearing in five trading days. The 10% participation row halves those numbers and is the right reference for risk-averse desks.
Liquidation runway
Price-range proxy
Median 60-day daily price range is 4.93% — well above the 2% institutional-friction threshold. For a $94M position (1% of mcap), implementation cost on parent VWAP is materially higher than headline ADV suggests; a programmatic build over 8-12 sessions at 10% ADV is the prudent default.
Bottom line: at 20% ADV participation, an issuer-level position of ~1% of market cap clears in five trading days; at 10% ADV that drops to 0.5%. Above 2% of mcap, budget two-to-three weeks to clear cleanly with visible price impact during distribution.
8. Technical scorecard and stance
Net score: +2 of a possible +6 — constructive but not full-conviction.
Stance — 3-to-6-month horizon
Cautiously bullish. The primary uptrend is intact and the structural setup (golden cross active, price above all major MAs, expanding volume on the breakout) argues for staying with the name. The tape is rich: a near-quadruple in 13 months, RSI cooling off deep overbought, MACD histogram rolling, realized vol in the 5-year stressed band. Posture: participate with a defined-risk frame rather than chase strength.
Watch levels:
- $23.67 (all-time high, close basis): a sustained break above would confirm a move into price discovery and remove the proximate overhang.
- $16.97 (50-day SMA, ~25% below spot): an undercut on volume would break the primary uptrend structure and open a path to the 100-day at $14.60, reactivating the prior $12-15 distribution zone.
Liquidity is not the constraint — capacity is ample for funds up to ~$2-5B AUM depending on sizing and participation discipline. The binding constraints are timing and price: a 25% drawdown to the 50-day would be a historically normal pullback inside an uptrend of this magnitude, so build in tranches and avoid full sizing into vertical strength.